← DeckaDice HVN Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at DeckaDice HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | -15.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Lost in Thought, Fractal of Snow, Song of Frost. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fast Cure, Fractal of Refreshment.
Banned
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |